Performance review

U.S. non-farm payrolls data smooth but the number of Wells falling for 22 weeks, Europe and the United States oil mixed. Nyse June contracts to settle at $0.45 at $59.39 a barrel; London brent contract in June fell $0.15 to $65.39 a barrel.

Domestic market, all of these intraday chemical market weakness, low volatility, LLDPE major slump in 1509 finally closed at 145 yuan to 9745 yuan/ton, volume reduction of 60000 of 750000 hands. Main PP 1509 fell 131 yuan to 8624 yuan/ton, 60000 to 600000 hand volume decrease.

Fundamental analysis

, according to data from the U.S. labor department said the United States in April 223000 jobs were created a seasonally adjusted, slightly less than economists forecast of 228000 people, in March of the growth is sharply down from 126000 to 85000. The unemployment rate from 5.5% to 5.4%, in line with expectations.

The number 22 consecutive weeks of oil well reduces, but does not mean that crude oil output and decrease. As of May 8th week, the United States to drill the number 668, to its lowest level since September 2010, than the previous 11 reduction. Peak in October 1609 decreased by 58% than last year. More than the number of gas Wells in 221, over the same period the United States opened on reduced by 1. The U.S. offshore drilling quantity is 34, and the previous levels, reduce 25 than the same period last year. All assignments, including natural gas well number 894, than the previous 11, 1855 to reduce 961 than the same period last year. This data is four weeks ago for the first time since September 2009 dropped to below 1000.

In addition, the central bank over the weekend to a bombshell. Central bank announced that since the beginning of the 11th of this month, financial institutions one-year RMB loans benchmark interest rate by 0.25% to 5.1%; The benchmark one-year deposit interest rate by 0.25% to 0.25%; Deposit interest rate floating range limit will be financial institutions by 1.3 times of the benchmark deposit rate 1.5 times, every other benchmark lending and deposit rates, personal housing accumulation fund deposit and lending rates accordingly. China has entirely towards easing monetary policy, abundant liquidity in the market will be further.

Ethylene declines stability in Asia. On May 8, ethylene prices CFR southeast Asia reported $1383 / ton, CFR northeast Asia at $1350 / ton. River, the concentrated mass production until around the middle of April, June 5 - market demand will gradually turn pale, but the dushanzi, daqing density, device maintenance, sunup will enter maintenance, local resources supply remains tight, spot shipment, CPC, sinopec, central China, north China, southwest of CPC loose parts price, shenhua baotou bid price decline.

The overall analysis

Overall look, the weakness of the supply and demand pattern laid the deep change of crude oil, and in the present relatively low, the market is sensitive to message reflection, the recent U.S. economic data repeatedly, the decrease in the number of drilling but high inventory, Opec production continue to increase, long-short factors interweave, the crude oil in the late stage will enter the wide range of 55-65.

Still contradiction between supply and demand for downstream petrochemical, plastics, and part of equipment maintenance to boost the market, market demand and 5 - June will gradually turn pale, market supply and demand in the two light pattern, and space are limited, ethylene prices recently, even the plastic upfront costs support collapse, the late situation will remain under pressure, and between short-term macro environment turbulence, intraday volatility.